Key Trends Forecast for Cashews – Q3 2025 What’s Coming Next

WW320 & Broken Grade Trends Explained
1. Price Trends
  • Whole Cashew Grades (WW320, WW240):
    Prices dropped by ~2% (FOB Vietnam) this week due to weak buyer momentum and cautious restocking.

  • Broken Grades (WS, LP):
    Prices remain mostly stable, but there’s visible strain on supply—especially with tightening raw input availability in African and Asian sources.

2. Demand & Trade Dynamics
United States Market
  • Demand has significantly weakened, mainly due to tariff-related uncertainty:

    • A proposed 20% tariff on Vietnamese cashew exports to the U.S. is under review, with confirmation expected by August 1, 2025.

    • US imports of Vietnamese cashews are down 24% year-on-year (early 2025).

    • Retailers are favoring short-term contracts, keeping Q4 demand largely uncovered—potentially setting the stage for volatility later in the year.

European Market
  • Steady but selective:

    • Broken-grade cashews are in demand for immediate use, especially by supermarket chains.

    • Whole-grade prices are following Vietnam’s slight downtrend, but European buyers are slowly beginning to replenish stocks.


3. Price Outlook – Q3 2025
Short-Term (August–September)
  • Expect prices to stay soft to moderately weak.

  • Buyer hesitation and unclear tariff scenarios will weigh on volumes.

Long-Term (Q4 and beyond)
  • If the 20% US tariff is finalized:

    • Vietnamese exporters may pivot towards the EU, Middle East, and emerging Asian markets.

    • This will likely reshape supply chains and trigger price realignments, especially in the broken/processed segment.